Will the World Run Out of Lithium?

Lithium is a naturally occurring element found in the earth’s crust, primarily in mineral deposits, brine pools, and salt flats. It is commonly used in rechargeable batteries, particularly for Electric Vehicles (EVs). With global EV purchases continually rising, the surge in demand has raised concerns about lithium availability. Many are asking: Will the world run out of lithium? Here’s some insight from the experts at Drive Electric.

How Much Lithium is Available Globally?

According to data from the US Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory, a single EV lithium-ion battery pack contains approximately 8 kg of lithium. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the world’s identified lithium resources are around 79 million metric tons, with the largest reserves in Chile, Argentina, and Australia. Currently, the estimated lithium needed to meet global demand is between 0.5 – 1.3 million metric tons, but this figure is expected to rise as EV adoption increases. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2040, annual lithium demand could reach 1.3 million metric tons, over fifteen times current levels.

Will the World Run Out of Lithium?

Despite rising demand, experts agree that the world is unlikely to run out of lithium. Research published in the scientific journal Joule confirms that the world has sufficient raw materials to support the transition to renewable energy and electric transportation. Most analysts suggest that lithium shortages or supply restrictions will not occur in the same way as oil shortages, making the transition to EVs sustainable in the long run. Here’s why:

1. More Lithium Sources Are Still Being Discovered

A significant amount of lithium remains unexplored. While not all sources are economically viable, advancements in exploration technology are improving lithium discovery and extraction. According to the US Geological Survey, lithium is “relatively abundant”, and Oxford University scientist Hannah Ritchie states, “We keep discovering more lithium, and we get better at mining it.”

2. Alternative Sources of Lithium

Scientists are exploring alternative lithium sources, such as seawater extraction, which could significantly expand reserves. Additionally, new battery technologies—such as solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur, and lithium-air batteries—could reduce dependence on traditional lithium sources.

3. Improved Technology

Advancements in lithium extraction and processing are making mining more efficient. For example, companies like CATL are developing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, reducing reliance on scarce materials like cobalt. Tesla has also started using nickel and cobalt-free batteries.

4. Price Increases Encourage Innovation

As demand increases, higher prices will drive new lithium mining projects, increased battery recycling, and the development of alternative battery technologies.

5. Battery Recycling & Second-Life Uses

Recycling used EV batteries could reduce lithium supply needs by 10% by 2040. EV batteries also have a second life in renewable energy storage, further reducing lithium demand. The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2030, an estimated 54 million end-of-life batteries will be recycled.

How Does Lithium Mining Compare to Oil Drilling?

While lithium mining has environmental impacts, oil extraction has a far greater social, economic, and environmental cost. Oil drilling contributes to political instability and environmental degradation. EV manufacturers are working to reduce lithium dependence, while internal combustion engines (ICEs) will always rely on oil.

The Bottom Line

While concerns about lithium availability are valid, experts agree that global lithium reserves are sufficient to support the EV transition. With new mining discoveries, technological advancements, battery recycling, and alternative materials, lithium will not run out—instead, it will continue evolving as a sustainable resource. Rather than worrying about lithium shortages, the bigger concern should be moving away from petrol and diesel towards a cleaner, renewable energy future.